West Northants Council Budget: £13.1m Overspend Forecast

West Northamptonshire Council is forecasting a £13.1m overspend by the end of this financial year, four months into it.

That is about 2.8% of the council’s £464.3m revenue budget for 2026/27, the figure it approved in February. The forecast comes from the Period 4 budget monitoring position, covering April to July.

Finance officers gave the numbers to the council’s Place and Resources Overview and Scrutiny Committee on the evening of Wednesday 2 September. Cabinet noted the full report at The Forum in Towcester on Tuesday 15 September, and that report is now public. (West Northamptonshire Council, 3 September 2026)

Updated 16 September 2026. The Period 4 report has been published and Cabinet has seen it. The breakdown by directorate, the use of contingency and the savings position are set out below.

Where the pressure is

The council names three services driving the forecast:

• children’s services
• adult social care
• home to school transport

All three are demand led. The council cannot cap how many children need care or how many adults need support, and it says the pattern matches councils across the country.

Councillor John Slope, the council’s Cabinet Member for Finance, put it this way in the council’s statement: “While it is not uncommon for councils to forecast overspend throughout the year, it is a concern and we are taking proactive steps to address the pressures identified.”

How this sits against the budget you are paying for

The 2026/27 budget was set at a full council meeting on Thursday 26 February. It was not a comfortable one.

• The council began the process with an anticipated £50m shortfall
• It identified £29m of efficiencies during the process to close the gap
• That took total savings identified since the authority was formed in 2021 to £144m, of which £115m had already been made
• Council Tax rose by 4.95%, cut from a proposed 4.99% after consultation
• More than 3,000 responses came in, the council’s highest on a budget consultation

The 4.95% increase works out at an average of £92.42 a year, or £1.78 a week, on a Band D property. It raises around £16.6m, with two percentage points of the rise going to adult social care. (West Northamptonshire Council, 27 February 2026)

Set the two numbers side by side and the scale is clear. The forecast overspend of £13.1m is about four fifths of the £16.6m that this year’s Council Tax rise is expected to raise.

The council still has to find the £29m of savings inside the same year.

The directorate split, now the report is out

The £13.1m is a net figure. It is what remains after the council has used £8.5m of the general contingency it set aside in February for exactly this kind of in-year risk. Before that contingency and other centrally held budgets are applied, services are forecast to run £24.2m over, 5.7% above their combined £428.5m budget.

Two directorates account for almost all of it.

Northamptonshire Children’s Trust, which delivers children’s social care for both West and North Northamptonshire, is forecasting a £29.7m overspend countywide. West Northamptonshire’s share of that is the £18.7m in the table. Within it, the report attributes £15.6m to placements, driven by the number and cost of children in residential care, and a further £1.0m to staffing and non-placement case costs.

In adult social care, £8.1m of the £8.4m overspend sits in the independent care sector. The directorate was set a £9.1m savings target for this year, of which £3.4m is now assessed as undeliverable, mostly the Adults Sustainability Programme.

£4.7m of this year’s savings are rated red

The February budget carried £29.0m of savings. Four months in, service directors rate them:

• £3.3m delivered and confirmed (11%)
• £16.6m on target (57%)
• £4.4m deliverable but at risk, across 20 separate proposals (15%)
• £4.7m unlikely to be delivered this year (16%)

The red figure matters because savings that slip do not disappear. They land again in the next budget, on top of whatever that year needs.

For context on how normal this is becoming: the council closed 2025/26 £7.0m over against a £431.8m budget, having used its entire general contingency that year too. (Revenue Monitoring Report 2026-27, Period 4)

What Cabinet actually decided

Nothing was voted on in the sense of approving spending. Cabinet noted the forecast outturn and the risks, noted the savings deliverability assessment, and noted the treasury management update. The report was for information only, and the published decision record lists no alternative options because of that. (Cabinet agenda and decisions, 15 September 2026)

What it means for you

• Nothing changes on your bill this year. An in-year overspend does not trigger a mid-year Council Tax increase. The 4.95% rise you are already paying was set in February.
• The risk sits in next year’s budget. An overspend has to be met from reserves or by further savings, and both make the 2027/28 budget harder. That is the budget you will be consulted on this winter.
• Watch the three services named. Children’s services, adult social care and home to school transport are where any further action would land, because that is where the pressure is.
• The detail is now published. The Period 4 report and its appendices are on the council’s committee site and carry far more than the press release did.
• If you want to be heard, the budget consultation is the moment. More than 3,000 people responded last time, and the council cut the proposed Council Tax rise, the garden waste charge and its car parking proposals after it.

For what you are charged now, see Northampton Council Tax bands. For the services the budget pays for, see bin collection days and parking in Northampton.

Sources

• Council takes action to address in-year financial pressures, West Northamptonshire Council, 3 September 2026. Source of the £13.1m forecast, the 2.8% figure, the Period 4 reference, the services named, the Cllr Slope quote and the 15 September Cabinet date and venue.
• West Northamptonshire Council sets a balanced budget, West Northamptonshire Council, 27 February 2026. Source of the £464.3m, the £50m opening gap, the £29m of efficiencies, the £115m and £144m savings figures, the 4.95% rise, the £92.42 average and the £16.6m.
• Your Council Tax bill 2026 to 2027, West Northamptonshire Council, read 5 September 2026. Confirms the 4.95% increase and the 26 February budget meeting.
• Revenue Monitoring Report 2026-27, Period 4, report to Cabinet, 15 September 2026. Source of the directorate table, the £8.5m contingency, the £24.2m cost of services variance, the Children’s Trust £29.7m and £15.6m placement figures, the adult social care £8.1m and £3.4m, the savings RAG split and the 2025/26 £7.0m outturn.
• Cabinet agenda and decisions, 15 September 2026, West Northamptonshire Council. Source of the resolution wording.
• Budget and financial plan, West Northamptonshire Council. Links to the 2026/27 budget papers.

Figures are the council’s own forecast at Period 4 and will change before the year ends on 31 March 2027.